Climate Change: Predictions vs. Reality
Climate change has been a hot topic lately (no joke intended). However, before Greta Thunberg and Instagram, there was already important talk of climate change and its impacts. Without diving in completely, here’s a short history.
The 2008 book How Can I Stop Climate Change? By Helen Burley and Chris Haslam, is a short section entailing predictions thought of by scientists in 2007 that the IPCC had highlighted. Continent by continent, they discussed how a changed climate would affect us. Most predictions had specific decades attached anywhere between 2020 and 2050. Now, ten weeks until 2020, I have decided to do a comparison of predictions versus reality. Did we assume the worst and get the best? Or are we living the worst that could have been far better?
Without further adieu, continent by continent, here’s the predictions v. reality of climate change.
Water shortages are causing extreme poverty in Africa.
Africa
2007 predictions
75-250 million people will face water shortages
Farms will be nearly cut in half due to pollution and lack of water
Flooding near the equator will disrupt mid-Africa
Sea-level rise in coastal Africa will affect land, thereby disrupting ¼ of the African population
2019 reality
“Africa is at it’s tipping point” read Conservation International in regards to agricultural interferences
Increased levels of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affect the crop growth on farms in which most places rely (this makes issues of starvation far worse)
Central Africa (near the equator) will face the same water shortages as the rest of the continent; opposed to the original prediction
Water shortages are now one of the leading causes of poverty in Africa
Flooding is expected to become more common throughout Asia due to climate change.
Asia
2007 predictions
More than 1 billion people will face reduced water supplies
Flooding in rivers among China, Bangladesh, and India
Salt water from flooding might contaminate soil
Floods could carry such diseases as Cholera
Warming oceans may affect fishing communities among some of the highest seafood consuming countries in the world
2019 reality
China, Japan and India are ranked 3 of the top 5 most polluting countries
Major rivers affected by glaciers melting
In increased temperatures, cyclones and typhoons are stronger
Amount of seafood brought to China is affected by warmer seas
Koalas are now considered ‘functionally extinct’ due in part to climate change.
Australia
2007 predictions
Increasing water shortage
Significant loss of plant and animal species
Risk of coastal flooding
2019 reality
Water restrictions among populace put in place due to an extremely dry year
In this past year (May 2018-May 2019) water supplies in Australia have decreased from 73%-53.4%
The country’s been said to be preparing for “day zero”, when the water runs out
Heatwaves and drought affect weather
An increase in duration and frequency of heatwaves are projected to have adverse affects on agriculture and human health.
Europe
2007 predictions
More flash floods
Coastal erosion
Southern European heat due to lack of rainfall
This could case unhealthy effects on farms
Heatwaves and wildfire smoke may cause adverse health effects
2019 reality
Usual heat waves intensified by weather, causing not only extreme health risks but 868 deaths in France and 1 in Belgium; caused by temperatures reaching up to and over 46.1ºC
Flooding rivers
Heat waves made worse by lack of rainfall
Wildfires across North America are already causing catastrophic damage and making way for larger incidents such as the massive fires that struck Northern California and Fort McMurray.
North America
2007 Predictions
California may dry up, therefore becoming vulnerable to winter floods
Hotter weather and wildfires will pose health hazards
East Coast hurricanes and tropical storms increased
2019 reality
Never mind drying up, California wildfires caused health hazards, the fatalities of 103 people, and burnt over 22,700 buildings to destruction
Not quite North America, however Hurricane Dorian struck the Bahamas between August 22 and September 8 and has been regarded historically the worst natural disaster
Since 2007, 13 hurricanes have affected the coasts of North and Central America
Climate change affects ⅔ of the bird species in the United States of America
Wildfires continue to spread across Canada, and the USA, causing airborne health risks
Climate change is threatening the biodiversity of South America’s Amazon rainforest among other areas which will have long lasting consequences for our planet.
South America
2007 predictions
Eastern Amazonian likely to be dry
Magnificent creatures, such as spider monkeys, jaguars and pumas will be at risk of extinction
Drier and saltier conditions affect food yields
Vanishing glaciers threaten water supply
2019 reality
Amazon rain forest is burning
Chilean glaciers melting
This however is an entire other myriad of issues and details
Cities that rely on melted glaciers as water supply are losing water
Under said melted glaciers, copper is being uncovered, causing great things to happen for the mining community of Chile
Pumas, jaguars, and spider monkeys are merely near threatened
Analysis
In summary, it seems that climate change is merely exacerbating pre-existing issues. One could argue that climate change isn’t real, or that it’s not a big deal. Without getting too opinionated, here’s what I think. Assuming what scientists are saying is true (which I, personally, believe) then we’re in a hole too deep for ignorance and neglect. Hopefully, this puts what’s happening around the world into perspective and how much worse we’ve made it through ignoring, repressing and denying. This comparison is proof of what happens if we continue with the actions we’ve pursued since 2007. If thinking that the Amazon would dry up by 2050 turned into the Amazon burning in 2019, what comes next, and what will you do?
